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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the largest improvement wins the award. However, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

However this year's competition is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions falling away and recent strugglers ascending in unison. Under an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and fun season, he's facing five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a normal year!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still