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PHEVs produce nearly 5x greater global warming pollution than official figures indicate, as per a new analysis.

Widening Discrepancy Between Official and Actual CO2 Output

Data shows that PHEVs release only one-fifth lower CO₂ than conventional gas and diesel vehicles, based on research carried out by a advocacy organization. This differs significantly with laboratory estimates, which assumed a three-quarters decrease in pollution.

Analysts studied data from onboard fuel consumption monitors of 800,000 vehicles sold in Europe from 2021 and 2023. The team discovered that real-world CO₂ emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were nearly five times greater than lab estimates, increased from three and a half times in 2021.

“Real-world emissions are rising, while official figures are falling,” stated a senior analyst participating in the report. “This discrepancy is widening and poses a significant issue. As a result, PHEVs pollute nearly as much as gasoline vehicles.”

Key Factors Behind the Emissions Gap

Analysts attributed most of the difference to overestimates of the “electric driving share” – the ratio of miles travelled in electric power relative to total mileage. The team determined that just 27% of travel was done in electric mode, while lab estimates suggested 84%.

Additionally, when operating in EV mode, emission levels were well above lab projections. This occurred because electric motors were not strong enough to function independently, resulting to engines using gasoline for almost a third of the travel covered in electric mode.

Regulatory and Economic Implications

Based on estimates, the underestimation of PHEV CO2 output enabled several major carmaker companies to avoid more than €5bn in fines between 2021 and 2023, by falsely simplifying compliance with European Union average fleet CO₂ standards.

Additionally, owners of PHEVs could pay about €500 extra per year in running costs than is estimated under lab tests.

“The bold claims that manufacturers often promote about their plug-in hybrid cars are clearly way off the mark,” stated a automotive expert. “Buyers are being misled into believing that by purchasing a PHEV, they are benefiting the planet and cutting money. In reality, PHEVs are little better than standard gas and diesel vehicles in terms of energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, and operating expenses.”

Policy Discussion and Automotive Lobbying

Hybrid cars have recently been drawn again into policy discussions as carmakers have pressed the EU to weaken CO₂ standards. A planned prohibition on sales of new combustion engine vehicles in 2035 has faced heavy pressure from the car industry and opposition from EU countries with significant car manufacturing.

Several senior politicians have suggested PHEVs as a potential “compromise” solution to include in the regulation.

An independent energy policy specialist, who was not involved with the research, called the analysis a “very useful contribution” after years in which segments of the car industry argued there was insufficient information to accurately assess actual CO2 output.

“The results show, beyond any doubt, that the gap in lab and actual PHEV fuel consumption and CO₂ output is much, much larger than for gasoline or diesel vehicles,” the expert stated. “All policy adjustments concerning PHEVs should be implemented with utmost care and considering that evidence.”